What if we could know in advance when we are going to die? That's the idea behind God Exists and Lives in Brussels, a brilliant comedy released in theaters a few years ago, but it's also what some "death calculators" who say they rely on artificial intelligence (AI) models promise to do.
In the Belgian film, the leak of the "expiration date" of every human being, communicated to everyone by mistake, causes chaos and panic in the world; in reality, these AI calculators generate only a vague curiosity, not least because, behind deceptive marketing, there is, for now, very little science. Or almost.
One research, many imitators
It was in late 2023 that news broke of an artificial intelligence model developed in Denmark that can predict early deaths with 78 percent accuracy.
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This AI, called Life2vec, was trained with the health, work and income information of 6 million Danish citizens from 2008 to 2016. By combining this data with various risk factors, it was able to predict up to 2020 early deaths in 2 out of 3 cases, with errors due to accidents or heart attacks.
The promising research was published in Nature, but there is not-and perhaps never will be-an application of it available to the public for obvious ethical reasons.
Some philanthropists with basic knowledge of SEO, however, do not seem to agree.
Insecure AIs
Indeed, searching the web, there are several examples of chatbots claiming to use Life2vec. Nothing true of course, but just an attempt to exploit the firm's popularity to generate traffic to their own applications or (real) AI models.
The results are reviewable.
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One of them, AI Death Calculator - Life2Vec, when questioned about my life expectancy, appears neither accurate nor confident: he says I have "many years of life ahead of me," but when pressed, he screens himself and makes amends: "I apologize for the confusion. I cannot give you an exact number as it is only an estimated duration." Too bad.
Trying the almost eponymous Life2vec AI Death Calculator goes a little better: it is not a chatbot but only offers a form to fill out with questions about tobacco and alcohol use, sedentariness, and access to care. Like this there are dozens on the web, with often similar and rudimental interface.
According to the calculator I should have at least another 50 years ahead of me, but an asterisk defeats the purpose: the app, it reads, "should be used only for fun," because "it is unlikely to predict the actual date of your death."
We are afraid
Dejectedly, I turn to ChaGPT, deity of all AI, to learn what is actually in their power and what is not.
"Predicting the exact time of someone's death is not within the capabilities of this or any other AI model," ChatGPT candidly admits.
"Life expectancy and health are affected by a complex interplay of factors, and no artificial intelligence can accurately predict individual outcomes," continues the AI, which does give sensible advice nonetheless: "If you have doubts about your health or well-being, it is suggested that you consult a health care provider". Pragmatic.
Illustration by Gloria Dozio - Acrimònia Studios
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