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European elections 2024, what's behind the black wave

The right is clearly growing, but perhaps not enough to take the reins on the continent. In Italy, the real winner is abstentionism. And that is a problem. Brief analysis of the vote


The magic, or if you prefer the ambiguity of the numbers, in the first instance tell us a perception that in the coming days, with a deeper and less schematic or always that you prefer less mathematical analysis, could change a reality that today looks very bleak to us.

The numbers today tell us that in Europe the Right is advancing inexorably, and so far nothing wrong with that, it is the game of democracy. What is striking is that an extreme Right is also advancing, one that is on the wrong side of history and that glorifies Nazism, complete with flags and tattoos with swastikas and similar symbols. Militants who look to Putin as the man of providence and the paradox is that the Russian premier invaded Ukraine under the guise of “denazifying” Kiev. Whims of history.

Germany, Spain and France see the consensus of their respective center-left governments reversed, while Italy confirms and rewards the current right-wing government. A hands-down victory one might say.

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But political reality is capable of overturning the harsh law of numbers in no time. President Macron has dissolved the Parliamentary Assembly, calling on the French people to vote for new, double-round elections between the end of June and early July, convinced that on the ballot the 84 percent approval rating obtained by Jordan Bardella, president of Marina Le Pen's party, will be greatly diminished. The horse's move.

In Italy the situation would seem clearer, but even here the numbers do not tell us everything. Giorgia Meloni won, but while her party in terms of percentage even surpassed the last general election, it actually lost more than 600,000 voters; just as the Lega lost 380,000 and Forza Italia, with an excellent 9.63 percent, lost 290,000. And still the 44 percent bar, set by PM Meloni was far exceeded with over 47 percent. You call them if you want interpretations.

Rejoice the Partito Democratico with its 24.7 percent and 218,000 more voters than in the previous policies where it stopped at about 19 percent. But the most lucid analysis comes from the refined intellectual Gianni Cuperlo: “It didn't go badly but the problem is that we don't know why.” If true, it is worthy of Flaiano's best aphorisms.

What is striking is that in the jubilation of favorable numbers, the entire ruling class does not realize a political reality that will sooner or later screw up democracy in this unfortunate country, the abstentionism that recorded a turnout below 50 percent. Best wishes to all!



Illustration by Gloria Dozio - Acrimònia Studios