Let's start by saying that we refrain from making predictions because, notoriously, it is bad.
What stands out in the statements of recent weeks is the carelessness as well as the ignorance of certain supposed protagonists; Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States declares: "There has been no war in Europe for more than seventy years"; forgetting two things: that a possible Ukraine-Russia conflict would be held outside the European borders and that, unfortunately, from 1991 to 2001 the war in the Balkans took place in the heart of Europe. And again, our Foreign Minister, Luigi Di Maio, regarding possible sanctions against Russia, in the event of a conflict, declares: "We will certainly implement sustainable sanctions". A wonderful oxymoron!
No less astonishment are the words of Joe Biden, President of the United States, who for weeks has continued to announce hypothetical days in which war will break out: "Next Wednesday ... Next Monday ..." and so on, according to the "secure information" of his Services safety; giving President Putin an easy game to smash him.
It is enough to remember the management of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, to understand that the current American administration does not shine in foreign policy, nevertheless it is clearly contradictory, at the diplomatic level, to send penultimatums as: "Yes to a summit as long as Putin does not invade ". (by the way, for all those journalists who "understand" about geopolitics, it is pronounced sammit).
Lucio Caracciolo, director of Limes magazine, a true expert in geopolitics, releases this reflection to Letizia Tortello, “La Stampa”: “Putin did not start the war and brought home three results in one fell swoop. He has achieved the goal of returning to being considered an interlocutor with which the US must deal, and has put back on track a Russian-American negotiation for global strategic assets and the architecture of security in Europe. By destabilizing Ukraine, he has ensured that it will not join NATO. He reaffirmed the principle that Russia is a great power: with a substantial coup in Kazakhstan, bringing it back under its control, and expanding its influence in Africa, it has reopened all the games of global security " Let's say, again for good luck, which at the moment is so!
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The Ukrainian territory has been a field of conflicts and clashes perpetrated over the centuries since prehistoric times, 32,000 BC. From Cimmerians and Scythians, from the Ottoman Empire to the Mongol invasion, from the annexation to the U.S.S.R. to the occupation of the Axis forces, as part of the Russian campaign. Over 80,000 Ukrainians enlisted in the Waffen-SS in an anti-Bolshevik and anti-Russian role, seeing the Third Reich as the only force that could ensure the establishment of an independent Ukrainian state.
"The granary of Europe", as Ukraine was at the time of the Soviet Union, was wiped out in April 1986 with the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant which for many historians represents the first real crack in the Soviet Empire .
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Today Ukraine is a sovereign state with all that entails and the Crimea question, opened in 2014 and still ongoing, is considered an unacceptable invasion of territory, in violation of the 1994 Treaty of Budapest; Ukraine undertook to dispose of all stocks of nuclear weapons and in return received guarantees from Russia,
United States, United Kingdom, France and China to protect their security and independence.
Now we can only hope that that "Memorandum" will be honored.
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