What the polls had predicted for the last three months has basically come true: the centre-right has won, clearly and clearly, which will allow it to govern for the next five years. Unless you implode!
There would be much to discuss about surveys, institutes in the sector and how the data are presented, but there would be a lot of tedious technicalities that we would gladly discuss.
As well as delving into the analysis of the communication of this election campaign would lead us to a political language that just as willingly can do without. We leave the count of errors and virtues to the experts of the various parties who will certainly treasure them, in the months to come.
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Giorgia Meloni won because she has a strong identity, a great character and an indisputable consistency. He won against the misogyny of his two allies, against inappropriate foreign interference and against an opponent who thought more about delegitimizing it than offering concrete proposals, limiting himself to simple slogans.
Meloni herself has not presented a distinctive political program, despite assuring me that she "has hundreds of proposals"; she too has limited herself to declining several slogans full of propaganda, sometimes with some contradiction. But that’s normal in any campaign.
In fact, he knows very well, as an intelligent person, that his path will be a visible one, despite the clear majority.
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The first obstacle will be in the composition of government. Here she will immediately adjust the balance of power with her allies and since the power unites, she will have easy game in holding the reins and limiting the desired.
The second obstacle, as for all new governments, will be the first hundred days. First she will have to deal with the budget law in a short time, risking ending in "provisional exercise". On the night of the polls Guido Crosetto, his most trusted adviser, implied that the budget law should be written by the incoming government together with the outgoing one; an elegant and very intelligent way of asking for help Mario Draghi. The second priority of these first hundred days is to reassure Europe on the positions of the new government in the international arena, a task that is quite easy for the new prime minister since for her speak the parliamentary acts of the past legislature: The opposition has always voted in favour of sanctions against Russia and the sending of arms to Ukraine.
Last but not least the expensive bills, inflation, the feared wave of return of the pandemic and some other "nonsense" of this type. A hundred days to shake the wrists of any "first in class"!
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Any Italian government in the economic field must do the homework dictated by Brussels, by virtue of a public debt of 2 trillion 800 million and Meloni has the intelligence to realize such a tragedy.
Assuming and granted that it will be able to sufficiently overcome these first obstacles, trusting in an adequate team of government, it will delegate to a bicameral the grain of institutional reforms and relative electoral law and on this front, Since it is not a matter of government but of parliament, she will be calm for at least two years.
In the path outlined above there is no trace of a return to fascism, of sporting Saturdays or of indigestible purges, nonsense of propaganda unworthy of a democratic country.
In the remainder of the legislature, however, there may be unforeseen events and slippages. It is known that Italy is the country that most loves to climb on the bandwagon of winners and often there climb characters who, as the poet says: "They want to be more realistic than the King".
Meanwhile in the spring of 2023 there will be regional elections in Lazio and Molise, more in various municipalities and here the appetites of its allies could come back to the fore.
Then the "cultural" climate that will be imposed could push enthusiastic operators of certain sectors (medicine, security) to push the accelerator on the limitation of civil rights; The European Parliament has a duty to ensure that the European Parliament is fully involved in this process.
Without forgetting that around the corner, as it is human, there is always the "Renzi syndrome" lurking: passing from 40% to 18% is a moment!
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